"A world of predators": Dr Robert Harmsen on Trump's untethered Presidency

It has been almost two years since we last talked to Dr Robert Harmsen, Dean of the Faculty of Humanities, Education and Social Sciences at the University of Luxembourg and holder of the UNESCO Chair in Human Rights. Back then, a second Trump presidency was but an option, which could "be a real stress test for American democracy". Much faith was put in the power of checks and balances to keep a Trump in check. Since then, the world has changed. At the very latest with the beginning of the war in Iran and the now returning talks about annexing Greenland, however, it has become clear that old alliances are crumbling and Europe has to find its footing in a less predictable world. How can we make sense of what is going on in the US – if it is possible at all?

Lëtzebuerger Journal: There have been many formerly unthinkable events that have transpired since Trump took office for the second time: threatening to invade Greenland, Canada as 51st State, kidnapping the head of state of Venezuela, the war in Iran, just to name a few … Which one do you think has been the most influential to the world so far?

Dr Robert Harmsen: I do not think I could pick just one, as this has been far worse than anything I had imagined, both externally and internally. Taking the internal changes first, I have been surprised at the extent to which Trump has been able to realise an "orbanisation" of the the structures of power in the United States. I have also been surprised at the almost total absence of effective resistance or opposition to what is clearly an attempt at a fairly systematic domestic state capture. I would have thought there would be more pushback from the Democrats, who have been singularly ineffective, and also from within the Republican Party and Congress. It is utterly unimaginable to me that Congress has effectively abdicated its function as a counterbalance to the presidency. While that may shift a bit with the midterms, the fact that they have systematically prosecuted this domestic agenda while facing such poor internal resistance is one of the most worrying signs. This is not a single incident, but the accumulation of many instances where power grabs have been relatively unchecked, allowing the executive to advance itself.

Last time we spoke, you said that a second Trump presidency would become a serious stress test for democracy. How are the Americans holding up?

They are in the process of failing, but they have not yet definitively failed. The signs are currently very negative, as the checks, balances, and buffers one would have expected to come into play have been very weak or non-existent. However, that situation can still change, as the midterms may actually allow for a redressment of the situation. It has already been interesting to see that the efforts at systematic redistricting and gerrymandering that the Trump administration encouraged have had mixed, and sometimes counterproductive, effects. Democratic states have also pushed back by undertaking similar redistricting efforts, which is a balancing act, even if it is not great for the overall quality of democracy.

While there is a core MAGA base that will stick with him "do or die, " a broader component of the party only supports him because they see it as their best chance to hold power. If and when that ceases to be the case, he starts losing that part of the party.