Editorial - Iran and the curse of oil

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Like an intermittently awakening volcano, the global Rubik's Cube is turning once again, reshuffling the geopolitical deck. The first move came from Russia – should it be dated to 2022, with the invasion of Ukraine, to 2014, with the annexation of Crimea, or to 2008 with the blitzkrieg in Georgia designed to 'defend' the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia? Over the past year, Donald Trump has been taking his turn in challenging the world order that the United States shaped in the aftermath of the Second World War, consolidating its role as an economic, military and political superpower. Long-standing alliances are denounced, promises forgotten and commitments neglected. Seeing China as his main adversary, Donald Trump would prefer to compromise with Russia, even if it means abandoning Ukraine. Only to invoke the Russian threat the next day to justify claims of American sovereignty over Greenland. The tectonic plates are shifting, and no one knows when this movement will end or what kind of world it will leave us with.

Caught up in the movement, the lesser powers are trying to stand their ground, torn between frontal resistance and slavish conciliation. The European Union has been left out of the negotiations on Ukraine, even though it is a neighbour and will probably one day include the country as a member state. Nor did it have any say in Israel's bloody two-year war in Gaza. Canada, also coveted by Donald Trump, pleaded through its Prime Minister at Davos for an alliance of middle powers, so that it would no longer be subject to the choices and wanderings of the self-proclaimed superpowers.